This Sunday at either Navan or Limerick a unique proposition will be available to Irish racing enthusiasts. The Tote Super Pick 6 has managed to survive the last two Sunday’s and as a result a pool of roughly €300,000 is there to be won on the eve of the Cheltenham Festival. So in a slight chance to the planned schedule the week’s Bet Like A Pro will focus on how best to approach the Tote Pick 6.
Before we start it is important to acknowledge that the Tote Pick 6 is a difficult bet, it requires a lot of preparation, significant investment and plenty of good fortune. We have spoken before about how your bet needs to reflect the complexity of the particular situation, this stands true with the Tote Pick 6. In reality, a single line gives you very little protection.
The first step you need to take approaching the Tote Pick 6 is to perform an initial sweep of the six races and to give each horse in each race a grade, either A, B, C or X. Each grade categorises the horses as follows;
Grade A – Main contender, most likely to win OR a horse that you feel has an outstanding chance compared to its price. Usually there will be between one to three A horses in a race.
Grade B – Reasonable chances, most likely to pick up the pieces if the A horses fail to run to expectation but there is a definite reason they are not A quality horses (question over form, ground, trip etc.).
Grade C – Unlikely winners who cannot be entirely discounted but may be worth of inclusion in some tickets.
Grade X – Horses which can be eliminated, through lack of ability or any other factor. These are horses you are comfortable to have running against you.
It is important to say, do not let the forecast prices influence your grading too much. If you feel a horse that is well fancied in the market has no chance and is a Grade X still to your opinion, it could be the difference in winning or losing.
After your initial grading you will need to re-examine you’re A, B and C grade and fine tune them a little bit. Many B horses will become C horses and several C horses can be eliminated as horses you are happy to run against you. Remember, some days you will get knocked out by X horses but trying to cover every possible outcome is an extremely inefficient way to play. Long term you are better off on spending money on the horses you think actually have a chance.
By the time you have finished you grading you may have a short list that looks something like this where your A and B+ horses are mains and B- and C+ horses are backups;
Now to put that into one big combination would be massively expensive (3x1x2x7x2x10 = 840 units @€1 =€840) which wouldn’t be within everyone’s budget. Instead consider putting on multiple Tote Pick 6 bets;
The first just has your main horses. Cost: 48 units @ €1 = €48
The second includes the backups for leg 4. Cost: 168 units @ 0.50c = €84
The third includes the backups for leg 6. Cost: 240 units @ 0.50c = €120
So for the three of these bets the total cost becomes a much more manageable €252.
The compromise you have to make here is that on your two backup slips you are only playing for half the pool as it is just a 0.50c stake but in a pool the size of Sunday’s this isn’t too much of a compromise. You are also not covered in the event that one of your backups wins both the fourth and the sixth but this the chance you take to spend almost €600 less.
These are obviously just random numbers picked as an example but the same logic can be applied to any Tote Pick 6 card and it will give you a better chance to hit that big win.
Best of luck with your bets this weekend and don’t forget about Sunday’s monster €300,000 Tote Super Pick 6. We will recording our Super Pick 6 Podcast on Friday to give you a helping hand with your selections for Sunday. So stay tuned to thetote.com