Bet Like A Pro – Tote Trifecta (Part II)

Last week we touched on how weighting your Tote Trifecta bets to reflect your opinion of the race can provide a much more realistic spread of units for the race than a simple four horse combination Tote Trifecta. Today we will continue this discussion looking at other ways to spread your money more efficiently.

If we take the same €24 we were playing with last week and take an even stronger opinion on one particular horse (eg number 1) and that he will finish in the first two places you could play;

€1 Tote Trifecta                1/ 3, 5, 7/ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = €12

 AND

€1 Tote Trifecta                3, 5, 7/ 1/ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = €12

In this situation, you still have 24 combinations and by keying in on one horse you have sacrificed the combinations that have him coming third or the combinations where it is only 3, 5, 7 in the placings. But instead you are getting a far better spread on the horses that you believe to be far inferior to horse 1. This is specifically for a situation where you believe that horse 1 is very likely to come first or second and that horses 3, 5 and 7 are clearly superior to 4 and 6.

In a situation where you believe that horses 1 and 3 will run well but you can’t pick between 4, 5, 6 and 7. Why not consider a combination like this;

€1 Tote Trifecta                                1, 3/ 1, 3/ 4, 5, 6, 7 = €8

AND

€1 Tote Trifecta                                1, 3/ 4, 5, 6, 7/ 1, 3 = €8

In this scenario you will need either 1 or 3 to win the race and the other to come either second to third but you give yourself a good spread on the field outside of that. As you may have noticed, these combinations cost less than the original €24 we have spoken about. You could just pocket the extra €8 but why not go with your gut and play the first combination for €2 and try to double your winnings.

These type of bets can be most useful in maiden hurdles or beginners chases over jumps and maidens and condition races on the flat where there is often two outstanding candidates in a race and a gap to the rest.  Let’s look at an example;

Trifecta NMH

This was a beginner’s chase where No More Heroes made his chasing debut. Coming off the back of solid novice hurdle campaign where he competed mainly at the highest level, he was always expected to make a better chaser than hurdler. He was sent off a short price to make a winning start to his chasing career. The only real competition in the race seemed to come from Fine Article, a half-brother to Grade 1 chaser Joncol that looked sure to improve on his already solid hurdle form over fences.

If we use the method discussed above you would have selected for example:

€2 Tote Trifecta 3, 6/ 3, 6/ 4, 2, 1, 8

AND

€1 Tote Trifecta 3, 6/ 4, 2, 1, 8/ 3, 6

The four other runners above are just for an example but it is very possible that Futuramic (40/1) would have been one of your four selections from the remaining seven runners. If he was, you would have been rewarded with a €99 Tote Trifecta return for a profit of €75.

There are countless opportunities like this in Irish racing, the trick is to identify them and then let your bet match your opinion on the race.

Come back next Wednesday for the final installment of the Bet Like A Pro – Tote Trifecta edition and stay tuned for the Tote Trifecta Bet Of The Day from Thurles tomorrow.

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